Are Commercial Aircraft Accidents Becoming More Frequent?

Following a series of high-profile air disasters, some social media users expressed concerns that such events were becoming more frequent. Videos showcasing near-misses began trending online, prompting US Transport Secretary Sean Duffy to address the issue in an interview with CBS News for BBC’s US partner.

Duffy emphasized that the recent spate of accidents in America was “very unique,” responding to incidents like a mid-air collision between a commercial airliner and a military helicopter in Washington DC, which resulted in 67 deaths. Additionally, footage of another plane flipping over after landing due to poor weather conditions in Toronto, Canada, had been widely shared online.

While limited polling exists on the topic, an Associated Press survey suggested that these alarming images might have affected some US consumers’ confidence in air travel. However, BBC Verify analyzed data from both the United States and globally over the past two decades and found a general downward trend in air accidents.

In the US, figures compiled by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) show a decrease in air accidents from 2005 to 2024. Notably, despite an increase in overall flight numbers, January 2025 saw just 52 incidents compared to January last year with 58 and even fewer at 70 in January 2023.

Data from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), a UN body that monitors global air incidents, also indicated a downward trend worldwide between 2005 and 2023. The ICAO definition of an aircraft accident is broad, encompassing fatalities or injuries to passengers or crew as well as damage requiring repairs or loss.

Regarding the number of deaths in air accidents globally over this period, there has been a reduction albeit with some spikes caused by significant incidents like Malaysia Airlines flights MH370 and MH17 in 2014.

Ismo Aaltonen, formerly Finland’s chief air disaster investigator, told BBC Verify that the series of high-profile accidents was not indicative of declining aircraft safety. “It’s very unlucky,” he said, emphasizing that random events cluster and thus may appear connected even when they are not.”

Marco Chan, a former pilot and senior lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, highlighted increased awareness from social media platforms contributing to the exposure of these incidents.

Authorities thoroughly investigate accidents, feeding new data into pilot training simulators. Regulators can impose penalties for safety violations, including fines and license suspensions. Airlines may also face operational restrictions or bans if they do not adhere to safety standards.

Air travel remains one of the safest forms of transportation. According to the US Department of Transportation in 2022, over 95% of transport-related deaths occurred on roads compared to fewer than 1% related to air travel. In terms of fatalities per distance traveled, air travel is even safer.

Mr Aaltonen advised travelers: “Be careful how you make your trip to the airport; that’s the most dangerous part compared to the actual flight.”