Key Insights From the Munich Security Conference 2023

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with US Vice President JD Vance in Munich, but he will not participate in the upcoming talks with Russia next week. The Munich Security Conference was marred by several declarations from the US that caused discord among European politicians. Following this, it is expected that US and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. However, despite insistence from Ukraine and European politicians, they have not been invited to attend.

Here are five key takeaways from Munich:

1. The end of an era: Nato was established in 1949 with the primary aim of preventing Soviet expansion into Europe. Now comprising 32 members, including several Eastern European countries, NATO’s founding principle – that if one member is attacked, others will come to its aid – has been called into question after this week. The post-World War Two security architecture for Europe may no longer be in place.
2. Ukraine policy upended: The US and Russia are expected to reach a deal on ending the war in Ukraine, despite warnings from Kyiv that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not trustworthy. They will meet in Saudi Arabia next week following a phone call between Donald Trump and Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated he would only accept any agreement if his country’s input was taken into account.
3. Spend more now: Europe must increase its defense spending rapidly to deter the newly emboldened Russia. The current NATO-mandated minimum of 2% of GDP is likely to rise to 3%, compared with Russian expenditure that exceeds twice this level in percentage terms.
4. The speech that wasn’t heard: US Vice President JD Vance’s harsh criticism of European policies at the Munich Security Conference was met with silence and later denounced by several delegates. While he appealed to others on both sides of the Atlantic, Donald Trump called it “brilliant.”
5. Disunity and discord: The conference highlighted a growing rift between Washington’s positions and Europe’s over issues such as trade and dealing with Russia. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has stated that Britain is not choosing between the US and the EU, but Trump administration messaging remains contradictory.