Unpacking the Fortress Effect: Why Teams Struggle to Win at Home?

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Image caption: Leaders Liverpool, who won at Manchester City over the weekend, boast the best away record in the Premier League this season.

PUBLISHED ON February 24th, 2025 | READ ALL 708 COMMENTS

Former Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson once famously declared that “we always depend on our home form.” However, in the current Premier League season, only 38.7% of games have been won by teams playing at home—second-lowest since records began. This week alone saw seven out of ten matches decided by away teams.

BBC Sport explores why this trend is occurring and provides a closer look at recent statistics.

What Do the Statistics Show?

This season’s figures mirror those from 2021-2023, when fans were present. The return of spectators seems to have positively influenced home advantage. In contrast, during the pandemic era (with few supporters in attendance), away teams enjoyed a higher success rate.

Key Points:

• The proportion of home wins was only 37.9% during lockdown and increased to 40.3% for away victories.
• In the seasons following the return of fans, home win percentages were as high as 61%, demonstrating a clear positive impact.

However, this year’s figures suggest a shift in momentum towards away success, which could have multiple underlying reasons:

The Impact of Away Kits

Innovative and eye-catching away kits are now standard. Teams often choose more neutral colors when playing at home to avoid the negative impact of colorful jerseys.

Away Team Advantage

Many teams are increasingly well-prepared for away matches, leading them to be competitive or even dominant on opponents’ turf.

The Role of Support and Discontent

In recent years, fan support has played a critical role in boosting home team morale. However, discontent among some fans could have the opposite effect:

• Leicester City: The club’s struggle with home form coincided with vocal supporter protests.
• Tottenham Hotspur: Although winning away to Manchester United, home support has remained low due to injuries and setbacks.

The Evolution of Tactical Warfare

Away teams have developed tactics over the years that maximize their chances at success. Time-wasting directives from the Premier League aim to counteract these strategies:

• Longer average ball-in-play time.
• The increased role of video assistant referees (VAR).

Moving Forward…

The current trend could be an ongoing shift in the game’s balance. However, whether it persists will depend on various factors including home kit designs, team preparation for away games, fan support levels, and evolving tactics.